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Is prediction from professional institution more rational? -based on “LangRun Prediction” professional survey data

Yu-kun Xu

The paper selected Peking University “LangRun Prediction” survey data and investigated predictions for future economic changes from more than ten Chinese professional institutions according to Rational Expectation Hypothesis. The result indicated that professional institutions have private information, so predictive ability and level are not consistent and prediction is sub-rational. The paper analyzed heterogeneous features of all the professional institutions prediction from the aspect of time and section, thus enriching the research for the field in some essence